If SpaceX and Boeing In-Flight Abort and Orbital Flight Test are good then NASA will certify each company to attempt their first commercial launches with astronauts aboard.
Boeing’s Pad Abort needs to go perfectly and Starliner’s NET December 17th OFT needs to be a total success. Boeing could be ready for its Crewed Flight Test (CFT) in 3-6+ months after (March-June 2020).
SpaceX’s In-Flight Abort test must go perfectly. The test is scheduled for December. SpaceX crew Dragon’s Demo-2 astronaut launch could occur as early as February or March 2020.