Macmillan Cancer Support said the projected figure of 47%, up from the current 44%, would put huge pressure on the NHS. People living longer is thought to be a major reason for the increase. But the charity said that more people were surviving cancer compared to 20 years ago.
In 1992, the proportion of people in the UK who got cancer during their life was 32%. This increased to 44% in 2010, an increase of more than a third. Macmillan said this figure would continue rising over the next decade, levelling off at around 47% between 2020 and 2030. The charity said this was likely to be an underestimate of the true risk facing people alive in 2020, as life expectancy increased and more people developed cancer.
To produce their figures, Macmillan used data on cancer incidence, cancer mortality and deaths from all causes from across the UK. They collected figures on cancer survival rates too.
In 1992, 45,000 people, or 21% of those who had cancer, did not die from the disease. This increased to around 90,000 (35%) in 2010 and is predicted to rise to four in 10 people (38%) surviving cancer and dying from another cause by 2020.
Other causes of death are most commonly heart disease, respiratory disease or stroke.