Can The Expansion Of Cell Phone Coverage Lead To Violent Conflict?

The great promise of cell phone networks is easier, cheaper, more direct communication between more people. There’s no way to tell, once people have a new, easier means of coordination, the kinds of activities people will then use it for. A recent study looks at violent conflict facilitated by the spread of cell phone communication, and concludes "the availability of cell phone coverage significantly and substantially increases the probability of violent conflict."
The study appears in the print edition of this month’s the American Political Science Review, and it makes a bold claim. The authors, Jan H. Pierskalla of German Institute of Global and Area Studies and Florian M. Hollenbach of Duke University, narrowed their focus to conflicts and cell phone use in Africa. Africa offered an ideal juxtaposition of circumstances: a rapidly expanding cell phone network that connects areas previously not reached by any form of long-distance communication and ongoing civil conflicts.
To plot the conflict, the authors first used a map that divides the continent into squares approximately 21 miles by 21 miles. They then ignored all squares where there wasn’t any violence in 2008, leaving only 3.3 percent left. Accounting for other factors, such as proximity to a border or capitol (either of which can increase conflict) and terrain (such as mountains or jungle favored by insurgents and guerrillas), the researchers plotted increases in cell phone coverage from a baseline of coverage in 2007.